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Microsoft's Mobile Nightmare Kills The Billion Device Dream

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Microsoft's self-imposed target for Windows 10 was to be installed on one billion devices by the middle of 2018. That's not going to happen. Microsoft has said that "it will take longer than FY18 for us to reach our goal of 1 billion monthly active devices."

As the anniversary edition of Windows 10 is set to be released at the start of August, the current monthly active count is reported as "over 350 million monthly active devices." That's below the adoption curve required for the billion device target, and much of the blame for both the current low numbers and the lower uptake in the months and years ahead comes down to Microsoft's approach to mobile devices.

A large part of calculating the billion device target was estimating the uptake of smartphones that would be powered by Windows 10. To reach the goal, there would need to be around fifty million devices sold, continuing the run-rate seen during 2015. That rate of course was buoyed by the Lumia device range and its significant volume of budget conscious devices. Microsoft's withdrawal from the mobile space to focus on desk-bound Windows 10 installations and bringing people into its cloud saw the mobile hardware take a major hit which was not compensated by third-party manufacturers licensing the mobile platform.

Don't go looking to the Surface Phone to make up much of the slack. While Microsoft is expected to release a Surface Phone at some point over the next twelve months, I would expect the device to be pitched in a  similar way to the Surface Book and Surface Pro 4 - as a high-specification high-priced technology demonstrator that shows off Microsoft's assets, as opposed to gathering market share in the respective sectors.

The Surface Phone is not going to sell anywhere close to fifty million units. Microsoft has made sure it is still involved in the mobile hardware space, but there is very little passion and drive to make it a huge success at the moment. Right now the focus is on getting as many people into the cloud as possible. On mobile that means a focus on iOS and Android offers a far better return, and on the desktop it means continuing to keep the pressure on Windows 10 powered tablets, laptops, and desk-bound computers.

The desk-bound Windows 10 has a number of advantages that will continue to push Microsoft to the goal of one billion devices (a goal that it will still reach, just at a slower rate than initially promised). As enterprise hardware is replaced, Windows 10 will continue to increase its reach (helped perhaps in part by the new option of a subscription to Windows 10) as will consumer devices. The natural turnover of devices in a mostly incumbent market is something that can be counted on.

It should be noted that Microsoft has not made this an easy sell, with aggressive strategies used to encourage users to update from Windows 7, 8, and 8.1 to the new Windows 10 platform. Microsoft may be looking at a new strategy but these moves do not help to create a sense of goodwill. Couple that with a clear miss on a stated target, and Microsoft looks to be on shaky ground ahead of the events to celebrate the anniversary and promote the success of Windows 10 coming up in August.

Now read my review of Microsoft's Surface Book.

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