Why Apple has not Entered the VR Scene Yet

Over the last few weeks, I have fielded a few media calls asking why Apple has not entered the VR space. Anyone who really knows Apple knows the answer to this question. Apple almost never leads the charge when it comes to new or even cutting edge technology. Instead, they watch a new technology enter the market and study closely what type of interest and impact it will have. Then, if they see the technology has real demand, they enter with a product that is well thought out and can be tied to their large ecosystem of apps and services.

Apple did not invent the PC. But, with the Mac, they made it better and introduced the mouse, graphical user interfaces and made the floppy drives smaller. Apple did not invent MP3 players. But, once they entered this market, they made sure they had all of the right pieces together and dominated for over 10 years. This same analogy goes for smartphones, tablets and, most recently, smart watches.

I believe that as Apple has looked at the current market for VR, they are viewing it as they did the early MP3 player space. While this time there are some early VR headsets that are gaining high interest in gaming and with early adopters, I don’t believe this is a market Apple has high interest in. For one thing, these devices are not high volume. And, at the low end, with the Samsung Gear VR headset that works with a Samsung smartphone, they are low quality and not a mass market item either.

So, the big question related to VR would be when will Apple enter the VR space?

The logical way to answer this is to look at how Apple has attacked new market opportunities in the past. First, they watch and study closely to see if there is market demand. If this passes the smell test then they focus on creating the best of breed in that category of devices and third, they tie it to a platform, an SDK and a set of services so that, when they enter the market, they bring a complete solution to the user. Then, and only then, do I see Apple entering the VR space.

But as I look at what is in the market today, I really don’t believe Apple, should they enter the VR market, would do it with a tethered solution or a low-end headset where you pop an iPhone into it to make the dumb headset a VR player. Rather, I believe Apple would enter this market with the equivalent of the guts or full electronics that would somewhat resemble an iPhone’s motherboard and put it inside the headset itself so it would work as a standalone device.

Knowing Apple, I suspect they would also opt for very high quality optics and make the overall VR experience a fully hands free one as much as possible by applying AI via Siri for many levels of input and navigation.
Then they would create a special version of iOS optimized for this, deliver a dedicated SDK so software developers could create apps for it, and make it part of their overall store and services.

I think this is very likely the way Apple would approach any entry into the VR space. So the question is, when would they be able to bring a product like this out that would interest a mass market and sell in the millions-of-units a month? My best guess is they still need more powerful mobile processors and GPUs and other components to create the actual VR headset that meets their criteria for a market entry.

What is interesting is that, in talking with key semiconductor players, they also see a similar model for what they believe will be the most acceptable VR headset for a broader audience. They too don’t believe a tethered headset will ever gain mass market adoption. In Apple’s case, I suspect they will need at least another one to two years to advance their A series processor before it meets their basic needs for an Apple-acceptable VR headset. And, in talking with various ARM-based players, that seems to be the same thinking for the ARM camp.

If you are going to create a headset that is completely powered within the headset, it needs much more processing power than what exists today. And the optics need to be at least 120 Hertz and, at the moment, there is only one or two suppliers who can deliver this type of optics and the quantities are nowhere near what Apple would need.

So I don’t expect Apple to enter the VR space anytime soon. However, if history is our guide, even if Apple is “late” to the VR game, they could end up delivering one of the best solutions that could drive unit sales in the millions per month and be a major leader in VR some day. Of all the players out there, Apple is probably in the best position to bring VR to a mass market. Just don’t expect anything from them soon.

Published by

Tim Bajarin

Tim Bajarin is the President of Creative Strategies, Inc. He is recognized as one of the leading industry consultants, analysts and futurists covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. Mr. Bajarin has been with Creative Strategies since 1981 and has served as a consultant to most of the leading hardware and software vendors in the industry including IBM, Apple, Xerox, Compaq, Dell, AT&T, Microsoft, Polaroid, Lotus, Epson, Toshiba and numerous others.

2 thoughts on “Why Apple has not Entered the VR Scene Yet”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *