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China Helps Apple Offset Lowest US iPhone Share In The Past Four Years

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Kantar released its August smartphone findings which showed Apple’s iPhone having its lowest US market share since October 2011, gaining a bit of share month to month in China and seeing its lowest share in Japan and the EU5 countries (France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy and Spain) since December. This trend should reverse with the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus but probably not as dramatically as a year ago when Apple’s US share increased from 30.5% in August to 47.7% in December.  I have developed a Google Doc that has Kantar data going back to August 2011 available via this link. (Note that I own Apple shares).

Apple’s iPhone has huge loyalty in the US

While Apple’s smartphone market share is at its lowest point in almost four years the loyalty of iPhone users is very strong. Carolina Milanesi, chief of research at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, wrote “While a month from now may still be too early to report initial sales numbers for the new iPhone models, we can say today that 11% of iOS owners told us in August that they plan to replace their current phone in the next three months, and 87% of these have told us that Apple is their preferred brand.”

The iPhone has seen its US share of 28.4% decline 2.1 share points in a year and 19.3 points since its most recent peak of 47.7% in December post the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus launch. The 28.4% is the lowest since its 22.4% share in October 2011 as the iPhone 4S became available.

China saw an uptick in iPhone share

Apple’s share of China’s smartphone market share peaked at 27.6% in February and had declined for five months to 19.1% in July. Interestingly the iPhone picked up 30 basis points of share in August to 19.4% and is up 5.1 share points in a year. China Mobile’s 4G strong rollout has to be a contributor.

Tamsin Timpson, strategic insight director at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech Asia, commented “In urban China, smartphone sales represented 84% of overall phone sales in the three months ending in August with the iPhone 6 and the iPhone 6 Plus at the top of the list of best-selling models.”

Japan sees big swings in iPhone share

Apple’s iPhone sees large swings in market share with each product cycle. The iPhone 5c’s and 5s’ peak to trough market share was from 69.1% in November 2013 to 27.1% in August 2014 and for the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus it peaked at 60.2% in December 2014 and has fallen to 33.8% in August. Note that the iPhone’s share is up 670 share points in a year.

iPhone is a bit stronger in the EU5 countries than a year ago

Apple’s August share of the smartphone market in the EU5 countries (France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy and Spain) is in better shape than typical at this time of the year with a 16.2% share. In the previous three Augusts the iPhone’s share has been 14.1%, 14.0% and 13.7%, respectively. For detailed data on each of the five countries check out my Google Doc.

Source: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech