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Don't Break Up With Apple Watch Just Yet

While I respect people's decision to give up on their Apple Watch, I do believe it is very short-sighted.

July 6, 2015
Generic Apple Watch

You may have read that some people are giving up on the Apple Watch. Some cite the lack of useful apps, while others point to frustrations that it has not lived up to their expectations.

Opinions I respect people's decision to give up their Apple Watch, but I believe it's very short-sighted, and I don't think they understand how new technology is adopted. They are probably curious adopters versus early adopters, who understand that devices get better over time.

If you look at the history of consumer tech adoption, it always starts with what we call a fundamental device that has a set of features that are intriguing to early adopters, even if its functions are limited. A recent example is the original iPod. When it first came out, it had a scroll wheel and offered only 5GB or 10GB of storage and a limited music store. But for those who wanted a portable digital media player, it struck a chord and tens of thousands were sold.

But in this group, there were also curious adopters. Many returned their iPods within weeks or months of its use, and there were a number of "Why I returned my iPod" stories. But those who kept it were eventually rewarded with better software, more songs, and the iPod only got better over time.

The same thing happened with the original iPhone. It too had minimal functionality, Apple-only apps, and little storage. We saw early adopters and curious adopters buy them in good numbers, but again there were many stories about why some people "broke up" with their iPhone. But during the first six months, there were no third-party apps, and it took close to a year before the software community started to develop what we call native apps for the iPhone. Only then did it take off.

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So you can expect history to repeat itself with the Apple Watch  ($300.00 at eBay) . Indeed, Apple has used the same strategy it did with the iPod and iPhone. The Apple Watch we have now has to be seen as a new mobile platform that will only get better and richer. Apple is about to upgrade the OS with Apple Watch OS 2 this fall, and the software community will use the new SDK that Apple released last week to create tens of thousands of native apps for the Apple Watch within the next six months.

There have also been some reports that demand has stalled, but our checks with the supply chain say that Apple is still on tap to sell about 20 million watches in 2015. This is a new technology and deserves time to develop and mature. Breaking up with the Apple Watch now is premature.

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About Tim Bajarin

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Tim Bajarin

Tim Bajarin is recognized as one of the leading industry consultants, analysts, and futurists covering the field of personal computers and consumer technology. Mr. Bajarin has been with Creative Strategies since 1981 and has provided research to most of the leading hardware and software vendors in the industry including IBM, Apple, Xerox, Compaq, Dell, AT&T, Microsoft, Polaroid, Lotus, Epson, Toshiba, and numerous others. Mr. Bajarin is known as a concise, futuristic analyst, credited with predicting the desktop publishing revolution three years before it hit the market, and identifying multimedia as a major trend in written reports as early as 1984. He has authored major industry studies on PC, portable computing, pen-based computing, desktop publishing, multimedia computing, mobile devices, and IOT. He serves on conference advisory boards and is a frequent featured speaker at computer conferences worldwide.

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