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Why the Apple Watch Launch Is One for the History Books

This article is more than 8 years old.

Apple will instantly become the major player in the smartwatch market at 12:00:01 AM on April 24. Basically the second the Watch is officially available.

While Apple is no stranger to coming into a product category and quickly displacing the top dog, what will take place with the Apple Watch is something entirely new, even for Apple. The tech research firm ABIResearch is forecasting that Apple will ship 13.77 million units in 2015. Considering 28.1 million smartwatches of all brands will ship worldwide this year means Apple will immediately grab almost 50 percent of the entire market.

ABI said early indicators suggest there were nearly 1 million pre-orders on April 10, the first day orders were accepted, over two million by the end of that week.

For a little bit of perspective on how phenomenal the Watch launch is, Apple shipped only 378,000 iPods during that products first year on the market from October 2001 through the end of 2002, just under 1 million in 2003 and it wasn’t until 2005 that annual iPod shipments were higher than the number of Watches expected to ship this year. Of course, sales ramped up a bit with Apple pumping out 54 million iPods in 2009.

The iPad did jump out to a fast start with over 7 million shipping its first year in 2010 leaping to 32 million in 2011, but even the iPhonetook three years to surpass the numbers that the Watch will generate during its first year on the market.

The Watch’s 13 million plus shipments are even more impressive when you consider it is a pure play luxury product that nobody in the world actually needs for any other reason than to just own one. And that is exactly what Apple wants as it moves to establish itself as a luxury brand.

ABI expects the average price being paid for a pre-ordered watch to be well above the entry level $349 price tag.

“The early indicators suggest an average selling price of over $500, but the early pre-orders will be dominated by real enthusiasts and perhaps those looking to resell the device (average purchases are well over one per buyer), meaning a significantly higher ASP in pre-orders than over the longer run. ABI Research expects the Apple Watch average selling price to be $445, meaning the Sport Watch will dominate as expected, with some upgrades in terms of strap combinations,” ABI reported.

The other twist with the Apple Watch launch that indicates the company is trying to reach an even more affluent customer, as if selling a $10,000 18-karat gold version is not enough, is the lack of huge lines outside its own stores. Instead people are lining up outside of some of the most exclusive stores in the world.

Since demand has far outstripped the supply, Apple encouraged people to buy online or at one of a very few high-end boutiques such as Colette in Paris, Maxfield in Los Angeles and The Corner in Berlin.

Apple has been allowing potential customers to try on a Watch in its stores for the last two weeks, 9to5Mac reported earlier. The Watch will be available in the stores in June.