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Intel Updates Roadmaps for 2015

At its annual investor day yesterday, Intel executives discussed their roadmaps for processors in 2015, particularly for PC clients and the mobile and communications space.

brian krzanich intel fall 2014 (800x600)

brian krzanich intel fall 2014 (800x600)

At its annual investor day yesterday, Intel executives focused on the financials but did spend a bit of time talking about their roadmaps for processors in 2015, particularly for PC clients and the mobile and communications space.

CEO Brian Krzanich (above) said the company had three main strategic vectors. First is Moore's Law, named for Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, which says that the density of transistors on a chip doubles every two years, to which Krzanich said "it's our job to keep it going as long as possible." That's been an Intel maxim for years—Moore stated it in 1965—so it's not a surprise. He also talked about increased integration—putting more features on each chip; and shared IP using things developed for one chip or business in other businesses.

intel core ip reuse 2014

For instance, he showed how the basic cores developed for the PC business get reused in server and mobile chips and how the modem and Bluetooth parts developed for phones and tablets are now getting increasingly important in PCs.

Kirk Skaugen, general manager of the PC Client Group, said he believed the PC business would grow faster than expected, in part because the PC is becoming more personal with many new form factors and designs; because performance requirements were growing again in a number of segments (such as gaming); and because of new user experiences, such as the company's RealSense 3D camera solution.

intel 2015 pc roadmap fall 2014

Most of the PC roadmap has been shared before, so there weren't too many surprises here, although I was interested to hear that 83 percent of the company's Celeron and Pentium processors are now based on the Bay Trail-M platform rather than the Core architecture.

Skaugen said the 14nm Core M systems have begun to ship for this holiday season. He said the more mainstream 5th Generation Core (Broadwell) systems should be shipping in early spring, followed by "Braswell," which will replace the BayTrail-M for Celeron- and Pentium-branded processors. Later in the year should see the release of the 6th Generation Core processors, known as Skylake, still using the 14nm process but using a new architecture. Unlike the delays in the Broadwell rollout in 2014 due to problems ramping its 14nm technology, Skaugen promised a "very fast transition" to the new Core line in 2015, but didn't give any details about specific Broadwell or Skylake versions for different segments of laptops and desktops.

Without discussing specific numbers, Skaugen also talked about how the graphics capabilities integrated into Intel's CPUs were increasing, saying that Broadwell could offer graphics that were 100 times the performance of the company's 2006 graphics entry and equivalent to about 80 percent of discrete cards. He also pushed how the company's vPro security line was doing well in businesses and talked about future small business versions with lightweight but easy-to-manage security features.

eul with sofia prototypes fall 2014 (800x600)

There were more changes in the roadmaps for the mobile products, with Hermann Eul (above), general manager of the mobile and communications group (which will be combined with the PC client group going forward) talking about how the company is on track to ship 40 million tablet processors this year, which would make it the second largest maker of tablet chips (after Apple) and the largest independent vendor. But he did note that the company has been losing money on these sales (it compensates tablet makers for the additional costs of components around the processor, creating what the company calls "contra revenue").

This, he said, should change somewhat next year with the introduction of the integrated SoFIA chips, which combine an Atom core with Intel's modem and other features on a single chip; and other Intel executives said they thought the mobile group wouldn't break even until 2016. Eul showed off reference platforms for 5-inch and 7-inch designs based on SoFIA, saying individual system makers could change these in different ways, with the 5-inch offering more flexibility and the 7-inch being more cost-optimized.

Eul updated the roadmap and explained a bit more about Intel's partnerships with Chinese vendors Rockchip and Spreadtrum to bring specific products based on SoFIA to market.

intel mobile value & entry roadmap 2015

For the value and entry segments, he said the company currently has its BayTrail-T product, but the aim is to move most of the processors to the new SoFIA products next year. SoFIA involves a "synthesizable Atom core," which means it can be used as a building block in creating mobile chips (much like ARM cores), and next year's versions will be manufactured by other companies (as are Intel's 3G and LTE modems, which developed from technology created by Infineon, which Intel acquired).

Up first will be a dual-core, 3G version of SoFIA, which is due out by the end of this year, as previously announced. This will be followed in the first half of next year by a first version of the chip developed in partnership with Rockchip, called 3G-R, which has a quad-core processor. Later in 2015 should see the SoFIA LTE version, developed with Spreadtrum. Eul said a follow-up LTE chip, which will be manufactured on Intel's 14nm process, is due in 2016.

intel mobile performance & mid roadmap 2015

On the performance and mid-range part of the market, the company currently offers a standalone LTE modem (the XMM 7260), and this should be followed up with a version with support for LTE category 10 and even more carrier aggregation. On the processor side, the company currently offers its Bay Trail and Moorefield processors (both based on the 22nm Silvermont Atom cores, though with different peripheral support); these should be replaced next year by the Cherry Trail platform, based on a 14nm Airmont Atom core. Eul said this was in early production, showing off a system, but said volume production would be next year.

I was interested to note that the Broxton processor aimed at the high-end of the market (based on a later 14nm core known as Goldmont), which was originally promised for mid-2015, is now listed for 2016. Indeed the SoFIA chips seem to be a bit later than originally expected as well. Afterwards, I asked Eul about this, and he said the additional SoFIA versions had been added to the roadmap, and the company could only do so much at a time. It certainly seems to reflect a focus more toward the value end of the market, rather than the high-end.

intel standard to custom servers 2014

The Data Center Group, which only recently updated its primary line of servers, didn't disclose a new roadmap for 2015, and server chips don't necessarily get refreshed each year. But general manager Diane Bryant did talk about how the firm was increasingly creating customized versions of its chips for specific large customers. Intel has standard Xeon and Atom server processors in production, and is making 35 customized versions. Such customizations can involve things such as adding cores or graphics capabilities, offering more flexibility on power consumption, and creating packages with specific FPGAs for running customer-specific algorithms in silicon.

Bryant pointed out four of these: for Oracle's Exalogic Elastic Cloud, for Amazon Web Service's new C4 instance, for Microsoft's Azure G big data analytics, and for HP's Moonshot with a version of Xeon with Iris Graphics for media and remote graphics. This is particularly important for the cloud vendors. Bryant said 23 percent of the company's CPU volume for cloud companies is now custom versions of its processors, and this could rise to 50 percent next year.

In general, Intel hasn't been as forthcoming about its future plans and roadmaps as it once was, but it's good to have a look at where its processors are going in 2015.

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About Michael J. Miller

Former Editor in Chief

Michael J. Miller is chief information officer at Ziff Brothers Investments, a private investment firm. From 1991 to 2005, Miller was editor-in-chief of PC Magazine,responsible for the editorial direction, quality, and presentation of the world's largest computer publication. No investment advice is offered in this column. All duties are disclaimed. Miller works separately for a private investment firm which may at any time invest in companies whose products are discussed, and no disclosure of securities transactions will be made.

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