Apple Is Starting To Claw Back Some iPhone Market Share

Counterpoint Research, Kantar and Strategy Analytics have published data in the past few days that provides information on the smartphone market. Counterpoint and Strategy Analytics show that Samsung’s smartphone shipments dropped about 10% year over year and that Apple ’s has dropped slightly year over year but it has increased from the June quarter. Both firms also have Xiaomi firmly in third place in the smartphone market. I have created a Google Doc that has unit shipments data from comScore , Counterpoint Research, IDC, Kantar and Strategy Analytics available via this link. (Note that I own Apple shares).

Counterpoint Research believes Xiaomi’s China shipments may have peaked

Counterpoint estimates there were 330 million smartphones shipped in the September quarter, which were 72% of all handsets shipped and generated 21% year over year growth. This compares to 272 million smartphones a year ago and 62% of all handsets.

Samsung shipped the most smartphones with 78.5 million units (24% share of the market) but this is down 11% year over year vs. the market increasing 21% year over year (37% without Samsung). Apple is the second largest smartphone vendor with 11.9% worldwide market share up a bit from 11.4% in the second quarter. Since the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus only became available the last 12 days of September Apple’s share should increase at least in the December quarter and potentially in the first half of 2015.

Xiaomi with 18 million smartphones has seen tremendous growth, up 267% year over year. It is now selling its smartphones in more than five countries outside China, which is helping the vendor to maintain the volume growth.

However, Xiaomi’s shipments were flat quarter over quarter. Neil Shaw, Counterpoint’s Research Director, wrote to me ‘Xiaomi maxed out its growth in China. There is a ceiling in Chinese market and Xiaomi is about to peak or have almost peaked. From here all the volume growth will come from expansion outside China. It's going to be tough to grow in China. If it grows further then someone like Samsung, Huawei or Coolpad will have to lose more share. Another reason is the lack of 4G across its portfolio. Once it gets 4G it should be able to at least maintain the 15M+ volume per quarter average.’

Kantar has Apple gaining share in almost every country

Kantar releases smartphone survey data on a monthly basis based on a three month rolling average. In the U.S. Apple’s share increased from 30.1% in August to 32.6% in September. This compares to 35.9% a year ago when the iPhone 5c and 5s were launched. Almost all of Apple’s increased share came from Google’s Android smartphones with its share decreasing from 63.6% in August to 61.8% in September. Microsoft ’s Windows was a distant third at 4.3%.

Apple saw a nice a nice bump in its China market share going from 14.2% in August to 15.2% in September and that was before the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus were officially available. The 15.2% compares to 13.8% a year ago so overall Apple has been holding onto its share the past year.

The iPhone had a bigger increase in share in Japan increasing from 27.1% in August to 31.3% in September (compared to 47.2% a year ago). Based on survey data from BCN in Japan and the rankings it is seeing for the iPhone 6 it would not be surprising to see its share increase by 2,000 to 3,000 basis points similar to what it experienced last year.

Apple’s smartphone share in the EU5 countries (Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Spain) rose from 13.6% in August to 15.4% in September and compares to 13.9% a year ago. The iPhone’s share increased month to month in Great Britain, Germany and France but fell in Italy and Spain). On a year over year basis it increased in all five countries.

Dominic Sunnebo, strategic insight director at Kantar Worldpanel ComTech, commented ‘Apple has also experienced market share and volume increases across all major European markets, as well as in China and Australia, in part thanks to the launch of its new handsets.  Across Europe’s top five markets, the iPhone 6 has outsold the larger iPhone 6 Plus by five-to-one.’  

He added ‘In China, the world’s largest smartphone market, local brand Xiaomi continues to dominate.  Its Xiaomi Red Rice 1S and Xiaomi Rice Note models were the two top selling smartphones over the past three months helping it to secure a 30.3% share, followed by Samsung with an 18.4% share. Some 16% of smartphones sold in China over the past three months had a screen size of 5.5 inches or larger – a positive indicator that the iPhone 6 Plus, which will be released together with its smaller sibling in time for Chinese New Year, is likely to be successful in this market.’

Strategy Analytics believes Xiaomi could face headwinds in non-China markets

Strategy Analytics estimates Samsung shipped 79.2 million smartphones in the September quarter for 25% share and down 10% year over year. Apple is second with its 39.3 million iPhones sold, 12% share and up 16% year over year. Xiaomi is in third with 18 million for 5.6% share and up 246% year over year.

Strategy Analytics noted that ‘Xiaomi’s Android smartphone models are wildly popular in the Chinese market and it shifts millions of them every quarter through its extensive online and operator channels. Xiaomi’s next step is to target the international market in Asia and Europe, where it may face stronger headwinds of low brand awareness and technology-patent challenges next year.’