The Apple iTime Is Destined to Fail

If you carefully follow the rumors for the upcoming Apple smartwatch, you'll quickly realize flaws that may be part of the product. Certain patents have come to light, including one that indicates the wristband will actually being a "docking station" for the watch itself.

I've said before that this Apple product won't get much further than any other computer watch, smartwatch, or anything else. I first wrote about this in 2012—an article worth re-reading. You can also reread my recent screed  about why Apple should not do a watch. But in less than a month I have changed my mind - kind of.

I now better understand the real problems after conversations with people who claim they will buy the watch (perhaps now dubbed the iTime) with certain provisos.

Apparently, the final decision depends on whether the watch is a full featured phone by itself—or a controller for an iPhone, an accessory. The people who want to buy it want it to be an actual phone in the watch. This means the device becomes a sort-of iPhone nano, a self-contained mobile phone controlled with a Bluetooth headset of some sort. I completely missed the importance of this point.

I got a lecture from a potential buyer, who will only purchase an iTime as a replacement for the iPhone rather than an accessory. But all evidence leads me to believe this device will be an accessory.

Doing that limits the appeal to people who were promised a sleeker gadget profile, which they desperately need, because they never manage to pare down anything. It's tablet computing all over again.

Here's what I mean. Paring down was the long-held promise of the tablet, especially the iPad. When the tablet arrived, it was supposed to be great for travelers and off-site workers because it would eliminate the laptop dependency. In other words, it would cut down on the amount of crap you had to lug around, or your gadget profile.

But it didn't. People were complaining almost immediately that the device was an additional burden not an improvement in their gadget profile. They carried around a laptop AND a tablet. That's why sales of tablets are already flagging.

The long-term success of the iTime (or whatever it gets called) will be similar. If it can't replace the iPhone completely it's a goner.

It's also not enough to be a health monitor. The idea that we want to cover ourselves with sensors to keep track of every bodily function as if we're robots running diagnostic tests is idiotic. Not that this sort of personal inward surveillance wouldn't be a lot of fun on a date (plug an analysis tool into each other's sensors and run lie-detection software during the dinner conversation. That would be a hoot). But for now, sensors are best suited to the hypochondriacs out there worried sick about their lipids. This will soon be replaced by some other fad.

So what is really needed as a wearable is a Dick Tracy watch, if you will. This does not mean a watch with a display that just talks to the phone in your pocket. The watch should actually be the phone. As I pointed out in 2012, this technology exists.

This is not difficult to do. The only drawback is the overall size of the device. While the radio I/O can easily be fitted into a wristwatch form factor, the problem is the graphical user interface (GUI) and how it works on a diminutive screen. This would require serious redesign of the iPhone GUI to keep the product functional and modern and small. I can even imagine a flip-open design to double the screen real estate.

Would Apple sabotage the iPhone sales by doing this? That would surprise me. The iPhone makes too much money. To re-invent the iPhone as the iTime would take a lot of guts and would also confuse the average Apple user. But it's still vital to any iTime success.

I hope this thing comes out soon so we can all see the reaction. Right now, I see it as the next iPad in terms of immediate popularity. Then it will fade in much the same way, unless it becomes even more useful for the average person. To do that it has to replace something else, and the iPhone is the only candidate.