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Selling a put does not give an investor access to AAPL's upside potential the way owning shares would, because the put seller only ends up owning shares in the scenario where the contract is exercised. And the person on the other side of the contract would only benefit from exercising at the $290 strike if doing so produced a better outcome than selling at the going market price. (Do options carry counterparty risk? This and six other common options myths debunked). So unless Apple Inc sees its shares decline 27.8% and the contract is exercised (resulting in a cost basis of $270.40 per share before broker commissions, subtracting the $19.60 from $290), the only upside to the put seller is from collecting that premium for the 4.3% annualized rate of return.
Interestingly, that annualized 4.3% figure actually exceeds the 3.1% annualized dividend paid by Apple Inc by 1.2%, based on the current share price of $398.50. And yet, if an investor was to buy the stock at the going market price in order to collect the dividend, there is greater downside because the stock would have to fall 27.75% to reach the $290 strike price.
Always important when discussing dividends is the fact that, in general, dividend amounts are not always predictable and tend to follow the ups and downs of profitability at each company. In the case of Apple Inc, looking at the dividend history chart for AAPL below can help in judging whether the most recent dividend is likely to continue, and in turn whether it is a reasonable expectation to expect a 3.1% annualized dividend yield.
Below is a chart showing the trailing twelve month trading history for Apple Inc, and highlighting in green where the $290 strike is located relative to that history:
The chart above, and the stock's historical volatility, can be a helpful guide in combination with fundamental analysis to judge whether selling the January 2015 put at the $290 strike for the 4.3% annualized rate of return represents good reward for the risks. We calculate the trailing twelve month volatility for Apple Inc (considering the last 248 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $398.50) to be 31%. For other put options contract ideas at the various different available expirations, visit the AAPL Stock Options page of StockOptionsChannel.com.
In mid-afternoon trading on Monday, the put volume among S&P 500 components was 1.73M contracts, with call volume at 2.01M, for a put:call ratio of 0.86 so far for the day, which is unusually high compared to the long-term median put:call ratio of .65. In other words, there are lots more put buyers out there in options trading so far today than would normally be seen, as compared to call buyers.
