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The era where the PC is dominant in IT is rapidly coming to a close as we move towards a future dominated by post-PC devices such as smartphones and tablets, and if your business is reliant on the PC to keep the dollars flowing in then you'd better start working on "Plan B."
The message that the era of the PC is coming to a close comes from a company at the heart of the industry – Dell.
In a proxy statement submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission relating to the company's plans to go private, the company outlines, in very clear language, that the PC train has hit the buffers.
Outlines are the "various risks and uncertainties related to continued ownership of Common Stock," and it makes scary reading for anyone operating within the industry, or who holds stock in the company. These are listed as:
- "… decreasing revenues in the market for desktop and notebook PCs and the significant uncertainties as to whether, or when, this decrease will end…"
- "…the overall difficulty of predicting the market for PCs, as evidenced by the significant revisions in industry forecasts among industry experts and analysts over the past year…"
- "…the ongoing downward pricing pressure and trend towards commoditization in the desktop and notebook personal computer market…"
- "…a shift in demand from higher-margin premium PC products…"
- "…the increasing usage of alternative PC operating systems to Microsoft Windows…"
- "…the increasing adoption of 'bring your own device' policies by businesses…"
What is clear from these statements is that while Dell is a PC business today, it is unlikely to survive if is remains a PC business. And if Dell is predicting a rough road ahead, then other companies need to do the same. This includes:
- Other OEMs – The problems facing the PC industry aren't limited to Dell. People aren't buying PCs, and this is not limited to just ones with a Dell badge on them.
- Microsoft – Its huge revenues are closely tied to PC sales to consumers and enterprise.
- Component makers – Demand for fewer PCs means less of a demand for components such as processors, graphics cards, motherboards and the like, which again has the potential to hit companies such as Intel, AMD, Nvidia hard.
- Distribution – Shipping PCs around the world is big business.
- Retailers – These are the people on the ground selling PCs.
We're already seeing signs that companies within the PC area are beginning to diversify. Microsoft is eyeing the post-PC market with tablets, and Nvidia is already well placed to take advantage of the shift with its Tegra processors. Google has also done well from its investment in Android, getting its services into the hands of hundreds of millions of mobile users worldwide.
We're also starting to see rapid expansion of companies taking advantage of the shift, companies such as ARM.
Then there's Apple, which catalyzed the PC to post-PC shift with the iPhone and the iPad. This is the company that has had the most to gain from the shift to post-PC devices, and it is well placed to ride the wave for the foreseeable future.
One question remains – where does this leave Dell? Is there room for a company that revolutionized PCs and help drive sales into the dirt in a world where the PC is no longer king?
Only time will tell.
