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Winter Is Coming For Apple, Warns Gene Munster

Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster is joining the parade of Apple analysts trying to lower expectations for its next two quarters.

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  • He is calling for $41.4 billion in review for the March quarter, which lower than the street estimates of $42.8 billion.
  • He's calling for 35.5 million iPhones, which is in line with buy side expectations. He thinks the Street is at 37 million iPhones.
  • Munster is also at 3.8 million Macs versus 4.2 million for the Street.
  • He has a gross margin of 38 percent, while the Street is at 39 to 40 percent.
  • Also, he believes there will only be a small increase in the dividend, from $10.60 to ~$14, and no bump in the buyback.
  • He's also calling for June guidance in the range of $36-$38 billion, while the Street seems to be at $40.2 billion.

While it all sounds very bad, Munster thinks investors will look past the noise around the March quarter earnings and look to the second half of the year which should include new iPhones, new iPads, and potentially a new mystery gadget like a TV or smart watch. He has a $767 price target and an "Overweight" rating.

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