Evidence abounds that Windows RT, Microsoft's version of Windows 8 for ARM-based devices like tablets, is in trouble. It’s time for Microsoft to take a hard look at what it's trying to accomplish and figure out how to salvage the troubled operating system before it has a real failure on its hands.
Consider the following:
- The most recent report from IDC estimates that Windows RT tablets make up only 1.9-percent of the tablet market. The firm forecasts that Windows RT will only grow to 2.7-percent market share by 2017. Simply put, "consumers aren't buying Windows RT's value proposition," IDC Research Director Tom Mainelli states in the release.
- Samsung is pulling its Windows RT tablet out of Germany and other parts of Europe due to low forecasted sales. That’s mere months after it decided against even launching its Ativ Tab with Windows RT in the U.S. That leaves three total manufacturing partners -- Lenovo, Asus and Dell -- that actually have a Windows RT device on the market. (Plus Microsoft’s own Surface RT).
- Of those, Lenovo and Dell have said that Windows RT is selling "as expected," but Asus isn’t playing along. The company's chief executive Jerry Shen said on an investor call, "At this moment, for last year and this year, I believe Windows RT needs to take time to ramp up." That's a nice way of saying that Windows RT is failing in the marketplace.
- Asus's VivoTab RT has gotten a $200 price cut (at least on Amazon) and is nowhere to be found on the Microsoft Store or in major retailers like Best Buy. Microsoft's Surface RT isn’t selling well either -- an estimated 900,000 shipped into distribution channels last quarter, and the number of devices that actually sold is less than that.
Right now, Windows RT is just too much bridge and not enough highway. Microsoft needs to push Windows RT into the gorgeous tablet operating system that it can actually be. There are a few obvious changes that the company could make to help make that happen.
Microsoft won’t really address any of this, at least not publicly.
"As we’ve said before, Windows 8 was built to scale across all sizes of PCs and tablets -- large and small. We continue to work with partners to ensure that Windows is available across a diverse range of devices. We don’t have anything additional to share at this time," a Microsoft spokeswoman told Wired.
That's the same utterly meaningless statement Microsoft gave The Wall Street Journal, which reported that Redmond had reduced the licensing cost of Windows 8 so its manufacturing partners could make cheaper devices. But cost alone won't solve Windows RT's slow adoption rate unless you get to fire-sale pricing, which would be another kind of disaster. Here’s what Microsoft needs to do, and quickly.
Populate the Store
The biggest, glaring drawback is the anemic Windows Store app selection. If you want to run native Windows RT apps, you have to get them from the Store. Yet Microsoft isn't succeeding at courting developers. As Wired reported prior to the Windows 8 launch, developers were wary to enter a closed environment. Since then, the app store has grown from around 10,000 apps to close to 50,000. Those numbers sound good -- or at least OK -- but quality trumps quantity. The Windows Store still doesn't have major players like Facebook or Twitter and while Microsoft might say that you can always use the touch-based web, the experience isn't the same for most web apps. Microsoft needs to go full steam in partnering with developers small and large to boost its Windows Store ecosystem.
When asked about where Windows RT could improve, Dell's VP of Product Marketing Neil Hand told Wired that it could use more apps. "There are 50,000 or so applications that work on Windows 8 and Windows RT tablets today," Hand said. "A lot of the applications you care about are in the Windows Store, but not all of them, there's still a ways to go. But that's not that different from when the iPad launched three years ago."
Comparing the Windows Store to Apple's App Store at launch is lame. Apple was ahead of its time, while Microsoft is entering the game very, very far behind. It needs to do a lot more work to catch up. At least with Windows 8, you can depend on desktop apps and ignore the Store if you want to. In Windows RT, you can't escape the emptiness of the Windows Store, unless you want to go to yet another empty space: the desktop.
Liberate Office From the Desktop
Speaking of the desktop, what is it doing? What purpose does it serve on a touch-first device?
The desktop in Windows RT just doesn't make sense, it’s broken, even. Its sole purpose is to run the built-in Office RT applications. Microsoft wants you to take its RT devices out of the office, but it’s desperately afraid of letting you take Office out of its computer. It shouldn’t be.
Peter Bright over at Ars Technica makes a great case for how Microsoft can "make lemonade" from the lemon of Windows RT, from an enterprise standpoint. But as he points out, "Microsoft still has a consumer tablet problem that needs a solution."
Here’s a better way: make all of the Office RT applications tablet-ready, Modern UI applications that focus on simplicity. There’s already a compelling example for this: OneNote is the one Office RT application that makes sense on a tablet. Building Office RT as if it’s actually meant to run on RT would let Microsoft kill the desktop. For a consumer tablet, that model of Windows RT makes much more sense. And in any case, the best possible thing that could happen to Office would be to take away half its features and most of its buttons. (It would actually be usable!)
Look, Office RT isn’t for business users anyway. It lacks advanced features like SkyDrive sync integration and audio recording in PowerPoint and OneNote. (For a full list of missing features, see the Office Home and Student RT FAQ.) And the most glaring omission: Outlook. That's a significant drawback for the enterprise that could lead them to shun Windows RT no matter what kind of desktop-wrapped package Microsoft dresses it up in. Microsoft should focus on making Windows RT more consumer-friendly than ever.
Move Fast
As Hal Berenson, president of True Mountain Group and a former Microsoft GM, smartly points out in his blog, "The main criticism of Windows RT is that it can’t run desktop apps. But the ability to run desktop apps is exactly what gives you the 'jarring' and unnatural experience that people complain about.... Here is the problem plain and simple. Windows 8 is a V1 product and it needs to be a V2 product."
Microsoft desperately needs make its V2 of Windows RT. The Modern UI Start Screen experience is awesome -- there's definitely something there that can compete with consumer tablets like Apple's iPad and the many Android variants. It's beautiful and fluid and amazing for touch. But in it's current fractured state, it also feels sloppy, and without apps there isn’t a compelling reason to give it a chance.
Instead of slowly inching its way to where it wants to go with Windows RT, it's time for Microsoft to run. Amp up the apps. Make Office RT entirely functional in the Modern UI -- if the company expects developers to build for the Modern UI experience, it should show them that it can at least get its Office applications to run there. Kill the desktop. Do it quickly.
Windows RT is not a failure. But it could be one very soon if Microsoft continues to dilly-dally between where it was yesterday and where it wants to be tomorrow.
