Peter Misek at Jefferies has turned mega super bearish on Apple.
Seriously.
In a note this morning he cuts his price target to $420, down from $500, and suggests it's all over for Apple.
As recently as August Misek had a $900 price target on Apple.
What's changed? He thinks the iPhone is over. He thinks Samsung is eating Apple's lunch.
He even warns that Apple might miss its own guidance this quarter as sales slow in the second half of March due to the release of the Galaxy S4.
He says Apple might release a bigger smartphone in the first quarter of 2014 to stop people from defecting to Samsung, but at that point it will probably be too late.
He says, "historically when handset makers fall out of favor (e.g., the RAZR, Blackberry, HTC) they fall faster/further than expected."
Did you see what he just did?
He compared the iPhone to Motorola, Blackberry, and HTC, three smartphone companies that were dominant and then crashed hard and haven't recovered.
The suggestion here is that Apple is seriously hosed.
In August, a comparison like this would be crazy. Even today, it's nuts.
Apple had the best selling smartphone in the world last quarter. But that was the launch quarter for the iPhone. It's possible Apple peaked last quarter and it's all downhill from here.
Misek warns that his current estimates project "moderate growth" but if the iPhone 5S and iPhone 6 "fail to re-stimulate" the developed market, he's going to cut his targets.
