The number of users with mobile devices is expected to climb to 5.2 billion in 2017 from 4.3 billion in 2012 and traffic across high-speed 4G networks will grow 40-fold during that time, according to a five-year forecast for mobile traffic data compiled by Cisco Systems and released today.
Global mobile data traffic grew 70 percent in 2012, with global mobile data traffic reaching 885 petabytes per month at the end of 2012. That's up from 520 petabytes per month at the end of 2011 and almost 12 times greater than total Internet traffic in 2000, which was 75 petabytes per month.
Looking ahead, Cisco says it expects worldwide mobile data traffic to increase 13-fold by 2017 to 11.2 exabytes per month or 134 exabytes per year. Cisco defines an exabyte as a “unit of information or storage equal to one quintillion bytes.” That 134 exabytes translates into 30 trillion images – or 10 daily images from each person on Earth for a year – or 3 trillion video clips, which nets out to one video clip per day per person. “It represents the tsunami of data flowing over the world’s mobile Internet to satisfy our need to connect people, data and things,” Doug Webster, vice president of product and solutions marketing at Cisco, said in the report.
Cisco put together the data as part of its annual Visual Networking Index. Here’s what else Cisco found:
• The average mobile user. In 2012, the average mobile user consumed 201 megabytes of data a month, including one hour of video, and two hours of audio. They made at least one video call and downloaded one app per month. By 2017, the average mobile user will use 2 gigabtyes of data per month, including 10 hours of video and 15 hours of audio. They’ll make 5 video calls and download 15 apps per month. Cisco also said that average smartphone usage grew 81 percent in 2012, with the average amount of traffic per smartphone in 2012 at 342 megabytes per month, up from 189 megabytes per month in 2011.
• The 1 percent. The top 1 percent of mobile data subscribers generated 16 percent of mobile data traffic, down from 52 percent at the beginning of 2010.
• Mobile connections. By 2017, there will be more than 10 billion mobile-ready devices/connections, including more than 1.7 billion machine-to-machine (M2M) connections. That’s up from 7 billion total mobile-ready devices and M2M connections in 2012.
• Faster mobile speeds. Average global mobile network speeds will increase seven-fold, from 0.5 Mbps in 2012 to 3.9 Mbps in 2017.
• More mobile video. Mobile video will represent 66 percent of global mobile data traffic in five years, up from 51 percent last year. 2012 was the first time that mobile video traffic topped 50 percent.
• Devices. Smartphones, laptops, and tablets will drive 93 percent of global mobile data traffic by 2017.
• Wi-Fi offloading. In 2012, 33 percent of total mobile data traffic was offloaded (429 petabytes/month) to a Wi-Fi or fixed networks. By 2017, 46 percent of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded (9.6 exabytes/month).
• 4G networks. In 2012, 2G networks supported 76 percent of global mobile devices/M2M connections; 3G supported 23 percent; and 4G supported 1 percent. By 2017, 2G networks will support 33 percent of global mobile devices/M2M connections; 3G networks will support 57; and 4G networks will support 10 percent. Also by 2017, 4G connections will account for 45 percent (5 exabytes/month) of total mobile data traffic.
• Android tops iPhone. Android showed higher levels of data use than the iPhone. By the end of 2012, average Android consumption exceeded average iPhone consumption in the United States and Western Europe.
Cisco’s complete report can be found here.
