The professional and amateur analysts have weighed in on their predictions for Apple Q1/2013 iPhone sales. Fortune has published a chart of their predictions, ranked by prediction. The numbers range from 43 to 63 million.
Observations:
- The professional analysts were more conservative than the amateurs. Even so, the amateurs have done very well in the past, so they can't be discounted.
- Perennial optimist Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray was near the botom of the list (45 millon). Horace Dediu was near the top (55.5 million).
- Other well-known name analysts, Shaw Wu, ben Reitzes and Maynard Um were closer to the bottom with estimates in the mid to high 40 million.
- The median prediction was 49.5 million.
- Apple's previous record was Q1/2012 with 37.04 million iPhones sold.
The wide range, 43 to 63 million, suggests that the models used by the analysts have widely varying assumptions and inputs. And yet, typically, the somewhere around the average of these models seems to be a good indicator. We'll find out the real number during Apple's Q1/2013 earnings report on January 23.
As an aside, despite the recent rumors that Apple would launch a line of less expensive iPhones for emerging markets, Phil Schiller seemed to rule that out yesterday in an interview with the Shanghai Evening News, translated by The Next Web saying, “Despite the popularity of cheap smartphones, this will never be the future of Apple’s products. In fact, although Apple’s market share of smartphones is just about 20 percent, we own the 75 percent of the profit.”
Clearly, Apple feels that emerging markets for its regular iPhones, significant year over year gains, opportunities in China and great profits remain a winning proposition.