BETA
This is a BETA experience. You may opt-out by clicking here

More From Forbes

Edit Story

Microsoft: Windows 8 Seen Spurring 'Muted' PC Upgrade Cycle

This article is more than 10 years old.

Microsoft's recent debut of Windows 8 will spur a PC upgrade cycle, Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu writes in a research note this morning, but he cautions that the cycle will be "more muted than many think." He writes that while some research firms are seeing 7%-9% PC unit growth in 2013, he thinks the boost will be closer to 2%.

Wu writes that there are several factors to consider:

  • Continued cannibalization from mobile devices using iOS and Android.
  • A slow adoption curve for Windows 8 given the big change in its user interface.
  • Growth is likely to be driven by emerging markets.
  • There have been share gains by low-cost Asia Pac players and by Apple with the Mac.

He adds that some people might wonder whether the PC market might actually decline this year - but he doesn't think so given several other factors:

  • Easy comparisons vs. 2012.
  • Some channel fill because of low inventory.
  • Growth and likely share gains by lower-cost and differentiated players including Lenovo, Asustek, Apple, Samsung, and possibly Acer.
  • There should be some Windows 7 growth due to its much more familiar user interface as some users migrate from Windows XP who opted to skip Vista.

Wu adds that he sees the PC market becoming more of an Asia-Pacific game, "with Lenovo, Asustek, and Samsung likely to show the strongest growth and continue to gain share on players like Hewlett-Packard and Dell," driven by "their lower cost, strong volume growth in emerging markets, and initiatives in expanding channels and partnerships." Apple, he adds, is "an outlier but a share gainer due to its highly differentiated Mac."