An Alekstra analysis of 2'000 iPhone users in United States and Finland shows an interesting divergence in text-messaging volumes over the past 11 months. In America, annualized decline of SMS message volume among iPhone users was 0% - the texting behavior of consumers shows no change. In Finland, SMS consumption of iPhone owners declined at a -20% rate over the same time period. The statistical analysis is based on the users of the Ratemizer application that helps iPhone owners minimize their mobile phone bills.
It is possible that since the iPhone market penetration is markedly lower in Nordic countries than in America, the pool of iPhone users in Finland includes a bigger proportion of more tech-savvy consumers who are migrating away from text-messaging more rapidly than average mobile subscribers. Nevertheless, the difference in texting trends is striking.
Mobile voice decline rates between the two countries seem to be roughly in line. There is an annualized -12% decline in mobile minutes consumed by iPhone users in Finland vs. a -7% decline in America. This may partly explain why AT&T and Verizon started making unlimited voice a mandatory feature in the family plans they launched last summer. Carriers know that messaging systems available on the iPhone are eroding voice consumption at a relatively rapid clip - as Apple increases its handset market share, the voice erosion may accelerate in 2013 and beyond. Better to force consumers to pay for unlimited voice and label this as a great deal than offer an option for people to switch to smaller and cheaper monthly voice buckets.
These trends might offer Sprint and other smaller operators interesting pricing strategy options. It seems that many US consumers would benefit from mobile plans that offer a limited monthly mobile voice pool and a variety of mobile data options.
