Where now for Tim Cook and Apple? (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)
As with any Apple story, I'll remind you of the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture and how it influences the coverage of one of the worlds biggest companies.
I've asked before how Tim Cook would define Apple under his leadership. Perhaps this weekend we have some of that answer. Switching Apple's new product releases from a twelve month cycle to a six month cycle.
Cook's speciality has always been managing the supply chain, both at the component level and also the shipping and distribution. If he has spent the last year getting ready to put Apple on a faster footing with a more iterative approach, not only does that approach match up with how smartphones are currently evolving, but it would deliver more consistent sales throughout the year.
After Apple's product releases in October this year, including an update to the main iPad range within six months of the iPad 3, all the key Apple products are now 'new' products. Previously it would be expected that these would be stable for at least twelve months as the top end devices, but that assumption is already negated on the iPad.
What if this is now the case for every product line?
Horace Dediu makes the case over on Asymco, nothing the same issues with the fall release schedule, the speed of global rollout of the iPhone 5, potential changes to labour arrangements, and capital expenditure being de-coupled from volumes:
This is a weak signal at this time and needs confirmation [my emphasis]. but capital expenditures seem to be outpacing production. The recent bursts in CapEx may be transient or may have to do with tooling-up Samsung’s replacements but it may also imply a move to a more rapid product cycle. A transition to a new operating model would require significant over-spending in advance of the shift.
And yes, all the leaks, images, and headlines asking 'is this the iPhone 5S?' might be on to something. I'll add one more thing to these signs, because they might have spooked Samsung.
The Galaxy S3 announcement sneaked in just after Apple's Q1 announcement this year, and as far away as possible from an iPhone announcement as possible. Now we hear that Samsung is going big during CES, and while I'd expect this to be something more like a revolutionary TV, many online think that the Samsung Galaxy S4 is going to be announced either at CES or Mobile World Congress the following month.
Why would Samsung go early? Are they looking for more clear air to promote their smartphone's new capabilities? Capabilities which, like every smartphone, will be iterative over the last version and need snappy and clear marketing to stand out?
Again, this is just another pointer. There's a huge amount of smoke and mirrors at play here, bluff and double bluff. But at some point the chips go down, and the evidence likely points to the simplest answer.
Like many online today, I'd love to see some counter evidence, but the suspicion of Apple moving to a six month product cycle is definitely one to watch.
