IDC published a report last week that has Apple’s tablet market share decreasing from 53.8% in 2012 to 49.7% in 2016 (410 basis points). It has Android’s market share decreasing from 42.7% in 2012 to 39.7% in 2016 (300 basis points) with Windows gaining significant share from 3.5% to 10.3% (780 basis points).
This was one of the reasons that was cited last week when Apple’s shares were down $37 on Wednesday. I believe the bigger reason was AT&T’s comments about essentially having flat smartphone sales year over year.
When you analyze the projected unit sales (IDC also gave estimated units for the total market in 2012 and 2016) and apply them to Apple’s and Anroid’s market shares you will find that both Apple and Android tablets are expected to grow at 20% each year for the next four years. While their growth rates are not as high as Windows (which is off a much smaller base) Apple and Android are expected to ship 3.8 times and 2.9 times respectively more systems. Overall this looks like good growth to me but Apple’s profits will be tempered due to a good percentage of them being Mini’s vs. full-sized iPads.
Market |
Market |
||||
Share |
Units |
Share |
Units |
2012-16 |
|
Tablets |
2012 |
(mil) |
2016 |
(mil) |
CAGR |
iOS |
53.8% |
65.8 |
49.7% |
140.5 |
20.9% |
Android |
42.7% |
52.2 |
39.7% |
112.2 |
21.1% |
Windows |
2.9% |
3.5 |
10.3% |
29.1 |
69.3% |
Other |
0.6% |
0.7 |
0.3% |
0.8 |
3.7% |
122.3 |
282.7 |
23.3% |
Source: IDC
Disclosure: My family and I own Apple shares
