Wall Street analysts are expecting anywhere from 43 to 53 million iPhones to be sold in the December quarter and I am projecting 50 million. Apple’s announcement last Friday that the iPhone 5 would be available in China on December 14 was positive in that it should incrementally help sales in the December quarter. However in the same press release it stated that it is currently only available in 47 countries vs. an expected 100 by the end of the year which could be viewed negatively. A positive spin on the lower than expected number of countries would be that there is very strong demand and Apple could have delayed China’s availability if the manufacturing problems are worse than feared.
The key question is is the lower than expected number of countries due to supply constraints or higher than expected demand (or a combination of the two). I do believe that demand is very strong and that most of the manufacturing issues have been at least largely or fully resolved. Lead times in the countries listed on Apple’s web sites are at one week and all the countries except the US have a limit of two phones per order.
Below is a table that outlines my assumptions for iPhone sales for Apple, AT&T, Verizon, Sprint and the rest of the carriers. What you will see is that the quarter over quarter (September to December) growth rates for Apple (117% last year and 86% this year), AT&T (181% last year and 113% this year) and Verizon’s (115% last year and 110% this year) are all lower. Also the increase in units quarter over quarter is not much higher in 2012 than it was for 2011 for Apple (19.9 million in 2011 and 23.1 million in 2012), AT&T (4.9 million going to 5.3 million) and Verizon (2.3 million to 3.4 million).
These comparisons are a bit of apples to oranges since the iPhone 4S was launched in early October 2011 (which depressed the September 2011 quarter results) and the iPhone 5 was available in September.
However, I believe this analysis does indicate that Apple could sell 50 million iPhones in the December quarter as long as their suppliers can build them.
iPhone 4S |
iPhone 5 |
||||
| Apple | Sept '11 |
Dec '11 |
Sept. '12 |
Dec. '12 |
|
| iPhones (mil. Units) | 17.1 |
37.0 |
26.9 |
50.0 |
|
| Units Q/Q (mil.) | 19.9 |
23.1 |
|||
| Q/Q % | (16)% |
117% |
3% |
86% |
|
| Y/Y % | 57% |
35% |
|||
iPhone 4S |
iPhone 5 |
||||
Sept '11 |
Dec '11 |
Sept. '12 |
Dec. '12 |
||
| AT&T (mil. units) | 2.7 |
7.6 |
4.7 |
10.0 |
|
| Units Q/Q (mil.) | 4.9 |
5.3 |
|||
| % of Apple | 16% |
21% |
17% |
20% |
|
| Q/Q % | (25)% |
181% |
27% |
113% |
|
| Y/Y % | 74% |
32% |
|||
| Verizon (mil. units) | 2.0 |
4.3 |
3.1 |
6.5 |
|
| Units Q/Q (mil.) | 2.3 |
3.4 |
|||
| % of Apple | 12% |
12% |
12% |
13% |
|
| Q/Q % | (13)% |
115% |
15% |
110% |
|
| Y/Y % | 55% |
51% |
|||
| Sprint | 0.0 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
3.0 |
|
| Units Q/Q (mil.) | 1.8 |
1.5 |
|||
| % of Apple | 5% |
6% |
6% |
||
| Q/Q % | 2% |
100% |
|||
| Y/Y % | 67% |
||||
| Remaining Carriers | 12.4 |
23.3 |
17.6 |
30.5 |
|
| Units Q/Q (mil.) | 10.9 |
12.9 |
|||
| % of Apple | 73% |
63% |
65% |
61% |
|
| Q/Q % | (14)% |
88% |
(3)% |
73% |
|
| Y/Y % | 42% |
31% |
