That may seem like a dire forecast, but when you look at this new chart from Nielsen, it's hard not to see the possible truth in it.
Though the WiiU is a hotly anticipated new console with 39% of kids aged 6-12 wanting one, it's bested by the iPad, which nearly a majority of kids want at 48%. And the next three items on the list after the WiiU? An iPod touch, an iPad mini and an iPhone. Are kids 12 and under really getting iPhones these days? Yeesh.
The next video game item to make an appearance is surprisingly Kinect for Xbox 360 with 31% requesting it. Nintendo's 3DS and DS have 29 and 28% respectively, while PS3 and Xbox have 26 and 25%.
You see it everywhere you go now, and it's even happened to my own family. Kids love iPads. The big screens, the simple games, they can be entertained for hours. When I was eight, I was busy staring at a console playing rather hard Sonic the Hedgehog or Super Mario levels, but now? Kids are far more content slicing fruit or throwing birds into wooden houses to kill pigs.
Obviously kids still love consoles, and 39% is a respectable figure for the WiiU, but it's clear that tablets and other touch devices are now more dangerous competition for traditional video game devices, possibly more so than consoles which have traditionally sparred with each other. Apple, currently, might seem to be the bigger threat than whichever new console each of them puts out next.
The WiiU has a few advantages on its side that past consoles have not. Firstly, it is in fact a tablet of sorts. The new gamepad might not have all the same functionality as an iPad, but it will get the job done for most kids looking to game on a device that size. Also, it's less money, $300 vs. $5-600. But that's an illusion, however, because as soon as you add more than a handful of games, the costs even out quickly. Five games for the WiiU would be another $250. Five games for the iPad would probably be under $15. And this is one of the main reasons tablets are such deadly competition for consoles.
The industry is stuck in its $50-60 price model because lately, big name games have been so expensive to make and market that the price is the only way they'll turn a profit. Obviously there are exceptions for titles like Call of Duty which will break records regardless, but for less obscenely popular titles, the price point is starting to lose them customers as they seek out cheaper alternatives. Ten hours of gameplay can easily be put into both Assassin's Creed 3 and Bloons Tower Defense 5. One is $60, and one is free. Obviously the quality and depth of one far outclasses the other, but with limited financial resources, especially for kids, the choice can often be a no-brainer. Even moving past tablets, we can see that a free to play game like League of Legends is now the most played game in the world by far.
My cousins are glued to their iPad and have never even heard of Sonic the Hedgehog. How long will it be before the next generation of kids might not even know who Mario is? Will this new generation of casual gaming kids be the most dramatic upheaval for the industry in two decades?
