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The 3rd Dangerous Sign About Apple's Stock

This article is more than 10 years old.

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Back in March when Apple’s stock was heading for new all-time highs, I did write about a dangerous sign for the stock, namely a wave of robust forecasts that called for the stock to reach $800, $900, or even $1000—some of these calls were made here at Forbes.com.

“While the stock may eventually reach there one day, such predictions hype investor expectations feeding into a speculative frenzy that may not be healthy for the stock. Those who have been around Wall Street long enough may have vivid memories of similar predictions for Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO),EMC Corporation (NYSE:EMC), and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) back in the late 2000. We all know how that frenzy ended.”

In July, after Apple missed on earnings expectations, I did write about another dangerous sign: A wave of justifications of the miss that re-assured investors that Apple’s fundamentals are intact, and that the stock will head north soon–after the iPhone 5 release.  Now, with the iPhone 5 release around the corner and the stock trading near all-time highs, the buzz is about Apples contribution to the US GDP. Such buzz isn’t healthy for the stock. It focuses on the noise, not the message.

The demand for iPhones is subjected to the same limitations as every other product, the state of the economy, the number of substitute products, etc. To reach a new high, Apple must constantly prove itself that can continue its innovative trait, as set forth by its founder Steve Jobs. Investors shouldn’t focus on iPhone 5, but on the next radical product on the company’s pipeline.

Also read:

Why Google's Nexus 7 And Microsoft's Surface Tablets Will Beat The iPad