For the September 2012 fiscal year, he now sees profits of $44.07 a share, up from $43.37; for FY 2013, he goes to $52.27, from $46.56.
The higher estimates follow Apple's announcement Tuesday that it will hold a product launch on September 12 that is expected to feature the launch of the iPhone 5.
The Morgan analyst also upped his estimates on iPhone and iPad unit sales. For FY 2013, he now sees sales of 167.9 million iPhones and 91.2 million iPads, up from a previous estimate of 147.4 million and 79.1 million. For the September quarter, he now sees sales of 24.2 million iPhones and 18.8 million iPads, up from a previous estimate of 22.8 million iPhones and 18.0 million iPads.
Moskowitz contends Apple can drive "meaningful" growth with further penetration of existing end markets, in particular noting that the company still has "low market penetration rates" in tablets, PCs, China and the enterprise. He thinks existing trends "can sustain the relative outperformance of the Apple model and reassert the company’s ability to absorb the cyclicality of product cycles."
What he's not really counting on is a move into televisions.
"We do not expect a full-fledged Apple TV until calendar 2013 or later," he writes. "Our research does not indicate any looming TV-related product launch, nor does our model incorporate any potential impact from a TV device at this time. Despite our current skepticism in the near term regarding a pending product launch, the TV market poses a significant market opportunity for Apple. In addition, deeper penetration into the television vertical could help Apple to restore its ability to absorb new product cyclicality." He notes that the economics of the TV industry are "strained," which is something of an under-statement.
But never say never.
Writes Moskowitz: "if any company can radically alter the TV landscape, it is Apple."
