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Apple: Is Street Too Cautious On FY Q4 iPhone Outlook?

This article is more than 10 years old.

With Apple this morning confirming plans for a September 12 launch event that almost certainly involves the debut of the iPhone 5, the next questions are when the phone will go on sale - and how many they might sell.

The rumor mill has suggested a launch date of September 21. If that's accurate, it suggests Apple will sell millions of iPhone 5 units in the fiscal fourth quarter ending September 30. And if they do, the Street's estimates on Apple iPhone units for the quarter could prove to be dramatically too low.

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster this morning responded to news of the launch event with a quick research note asserting that Apple could sell 6-10 million iPhone 5 units by the end of the month. That would suggest 26-28 million units in the quarter, he writes, well above the Street consensus in the 22-23 million range.

Not only that, he adds, but it also suggests Apple could blow past Street estimates for both revenue and profits for the quarter. Munster figures there could be 8% upside to the Street revenue consensus, which now stands at $35   billion; and $12% upside to the current EPS consensus at $8.46. (That would suggest revenue of $37.8 billion and profits of $9.48 a share.)

Munster notes that most of the iPhone units he's penciling in for the September quarter will come out of his 49 million unit forecast for the December quarter; nonetheless, you can be sure that a big fat earnings beat for the September quarter would cheer Apple's already cheerful investors. As for the December quarter, let's not worry about that right now; by that point we'll be talking iPad Minis. Or China Mobile. Or Apple televisions.

Apple shares are up $5.09, or 0.8%, to $670.33.