Tim Cook has a decision to make. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)
Once more, it's time to discuss Apple, so once more I'll invoke Taniyama-Shimura and look at the world of the seven inch tablet and the iPad.
When it was Steve Jobs running Apple it was easy. Jobs would say that something was silly, impossible, and a bad decision, until the moment that Apple announced a product that would revolutionise that area of technology. After some investigation, it will turn out that Apple has been working on said technology for a few years, internally iterating like crazy to get the perfect product.
With all the talk of a 7 inch tablet I keep coming back to Steve Jobs dissing the 7 inch form factor when talking about the iPad. Given Apple's previous form, that leads me to think that seven inches is bad... until seven inches is what consumers need. Strictly speaking, all the talk is now over a 7.85 inch tablet thanks to some nifty arithmetical calculations around display panels and pixel density (here's Andy Faust's explanation).
I've no doubt that Apple have a 7.85 inch tablet inside Cupertino. I suspect they have iOS devices with a variety of screen sizes, all being constantly tested and evaluated. Will any of them make it to the public before the end of the year?
This 'mythical' iPad Mini is an interesting test for CEO Tim Cook. Thanks to Google's Nexus 7 the smaller form factor is gathering a huge amount of media love, although it remains to be seen if it is something that will translate into significant sales in the marketplace. Amazon's Kindle Fire is probably the leading 7 inch tablet, with Samsung's smaller Tab devices flying the flag outside of the American market.
The issue that Cook will need to address is simple - does he start the production of the iPad Mini this year? To have any significant volume for the holiday season the decision needs to be made now. Can they let Amazon continue to build a presence and brand name in the 7 inch space, presumably with a Kindle Fire mk 2 on the way? Should they let Google demonstrate to their partners how to go about making smaller Android tablets with the Nexus 7?
Apple are a conservative company, and if you assume an iPhone 5 is on the way it makes more sense to concentrate on the smartphone now, and keep an iPad Mini for the traditional 'iPad announcement' date in March.
Their profit is based round their hardware - a model that neither Amazon or Google are relying on with their small tablets. Even with their legendary grip on the supply chain I don't see them extracting enough value unless the unit is priced at a minimum of $299, which puts it rather close to the base iPad 2 unit.
On balance I don't think an iPad Mini is on the way to the public in the near future.
