“Watching the Microsoft Surface event video, I sensed uneasiness. Not panic, but discomfort. Some will argue that I’m simply spoiled by Apple’s on-stage polish, but Monday’s Microsoft event struck me as rushed and severely under-rehearsed,” John Gruber writes for Daring Fireball.
“I presume Microsoft timed this event to jump ahead of anything Google might be announcing at their I/O conference next week — and the consensus seems to be that Google is going to announce much the same idea: their own Google-branded, Google-designed tablet that will put them in direct competition not just with Apple but with their own OS licensees,” Gruber writes. “But no pricing, no battery life specs, no demonstrations of the seemingly extraordinarily clever cover-keyboards in action, or really much in the way of software demonstrations, period? That’s rough, even by the standards of pre-announcements. Skepticism about these things doesn’t require knee-jerk Apple fandom. It simply requires an open set of eyeballs. The message I took away is that Microsoft has concluded that, ready or not, it needed to move now. There is no longer enough profit to be had selling software alone.”
Gruber writes, “It’s the OEMs whom Microsoft thinks Surface can put into checkmate, not Apple. If I’m right, it’s inevitable now that Microsoft will acquire Nokia.”
Read more in the full article – highly recommended – here.
MacDailyNews Take: Steve Jobs, whether he wanted to at the beginning of the iPhone adventure or not, has revolutionized (he was very good at that) the software business from one where relatively people few buy software at high prices to one where many buy software at very low prices. This suffocates companies like Microsoft and Adobe. Without hardware and hardware margins, Microsoft is dead.
Why pay crazy prices for Windows when the world’s most advanced operating system, OS X Mountain Lion, costs only $19.99? Why buy Photoshop Elements, when Pixelmator costs just $14.99? Why buy Office when Pages, Numbers, and Keynote go for just $9.99 each on iPad? The answer for the vast majority of users is very simple: “You don’t.”
Steve Jobs got tired of playing on Microsoft’s field, so he built his own stadium, completely changed the game, and, as a result, Apple entered into a league of their own. As the crowds flee Microsoft’s overpriced bleacher seats for Apple’s sparkling new venue with its low ticket prices, Microsoft has no other choice than to try to learn a new game and try playing by Apple’s rules.
If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it’s worth — and get busy on the next great thing. – Steve Jobs, February 19, 1996
Apple has forced Microsoft to change their entire business model from 37 years of horizontal integration to Apple’s vertical integration model; a model which Apple long ago mastered and a model with which Microsoft is unfamiliar and decades behind the Cupertino Colossus.
The PC OEM bloodbath, forced by Apple, hath commenced. The next great thing is upon us! Welcome to the Post-PC era!
Related articles:
Why Google’s purchase of Motorola Mobility is a white flag of surrender, and how Apple won the future of tech – August 15, 2011
Why Apple’s controlling nature is a core asset, not a flaw – May 6, 2010
J.P. Morgan analyst prefers ‘vertically integrated’ approach like Apple’s in smartphone market – March 26, 2010
Apple’s vertically integrated Mac could make interim Wintel model look like a detour – April 25, 2008
Apple has proven that vertical integration works better – October 24, 2006
Microsoft tries to match Apple’s vertical approach – October 11, 2006
Apple was right all along: vertical market quality trumps horizontal market woes – April 30, 2006
MDN Take = cogent to the utmost. One of your very best, MDN!
Totally agree!
+1
Perfect observation MDN. While it seems that you generally go overboard with praise and seldom view AAPL with an objective eye, you couldn’t do any better than this. Fanboys must be passing out as they read this. Fanboys and we fans all agree that it’s a perfect 10. You should frame this one.
The “Cupertino Colossus”, did anyone who knew Apple more than 2 or 3 years ever think we’d be talking about the Cupertino Colossus?
I thought the pendulum would swing but not like this. Never thought it.
Microsoft does themselves more damage than good by these premature announcements of devices clearly not ready for prime time. The nervous Barney Fife-esque guy from Microsoft demonstrating the crashing Surface tablet in the video shows clearly how unprepared they were by failing and necessitating using another one to carry on. When does this EVER happen in an Apple demonstration but is routine for Microsoft? (Remember Conan O’Brien demonstrating a crashing Media Center PC a few years ago to an idiotically smiling Bill Gates clearly not in command of his own technology?) That’s because Apple products are near ready to ship and presentations professionally rehearsed. Ballmer’s presentation feel like a high school production with his bull-in-a-China-shop presence. The clumsiest oaf of a CEO the world has ever seen.
You’re right—Microsoft does damage themselves in this way—they aren’t good at this stuff—but they feel they have to do it—and there’s little time to lose—now that they have removed the horse blinders and can see the road they’re trotting on is littered with triage units attending to myriad other bloodied tech companies.
Gruber cites, among others, Horace Dediu, who runs the numbers and concludes that Microsoft’s old business model is no longer sustainable. Microsoft now understands this, and that’s why they are getting into the hardware business—NOW, not when it’s really, really too late.
I appreciate what you’re saying, but I think it may actually already be too late. And when you continue to stumble like they have it only cements in non-PC fanboys minds they have made the right decision to use the more competently promoted, demonstrated and technologically stable Apple products (and “there but for the Grace of God go I”). People can smell bad execution and bumbling corporate moves a mile away and that’s the vibe Microsoft is giving off. Plus people don’t like that MS stink of fear and desperation instead of cool confidence Apple has.
The truth is, every PC competitor is already a decade behind Apple, as Apple has been working on their infrastructure for at least that long. Apple’s success isn’t in the individual products they sell, but in the complete ecosystem of devices plus the cloud environment they’ve built up and are improving constantly.
The failure of any PC manufacturer – and Microsoft – to see this truth and realize the steps they’ll need to take to eventually compete is why Apple will dominate this new “post-PC” era which it alone invented and is busily selling to the world.
The bloodbath is only now beginning.
Excellent point.
Watch the eyes. These guys were reading a script pretty much throughout the keynote. Certainly, the Apple execs have notes to aide them during their presentations, but these guys were clearly reading scripts. Sad, sad, sad…
Just because MS knows it has to change doesn’t mean it can, or that it can do so fastest enough to make a difference when Apple is moving the bar higher with each month.
“Fast enough” is the key here.
I recall reading something ages ago when I lived in Calif that supertankers heading for the port in Oakland had to put on the brakes* while they were still miles out at sea, because they were so massive. It takes time to stop a behemoth and it can’t be done (in MS’ case) in less than four years.
*OK, I’m a landlubber and have no idea what the nautical term is. 🙂
Work in progress 🙂
The best thing Microsoft did was to keep their mouths shut about things like “Amateur hour is over” or “$500 and it doesn’t even have a keyboard” etc.
When all is said and done, the ‘Surface’ is really a badly designed netbook or laptop.
Yes, a badly designed netbook for $599 or more for the RT version, PLUS a keyboard that the design actually requires you to get but is an accessory so more money. Same with the $1000 Pro version. The widescreen design demands to be used almost exclusively in landscape mode, but doesn’t provide enough real estate for an on-screen keyboard like iPad’s, so if you are tricked into getting one of these thinking you might forego the keyboard, you will be disappointed. You’re going to HAVE to shell out the additional money for the accessory. It’s going to be nearly as bad as making the power supply an “optional accessory”.
I scanned the Microsloth demo quickly and did not notice the keyboard was sold separately and I think I remember there isn’t a screen keyboard in it like the iPad, correct? That makes it a required purchase to have any real function. Are the ‘sloth’s really that stupid?
If both are true, the “Wow” does start now.
The did say that there is an on-screen keyboard, but with the very tiny dimension doesn’t leave room for it to be practical in landscape, rendering the “accessory” a necessity. A lot of manufacturers try to incorporate the 16:9 format, but it’s just too awkward in portrait. iPad is very comfortable no matter how you hold it. Just like Steve Jobs said at the keynote when he first introduced the (fully-functional) iPad.
Thanks for clarifying the keyboard thing, I really didn’t want to have to force myself to watch that terrible presentation again to verify that.
Funny: It’s going to be nearly as bad as making the power supply an “optional accessory”.
We used to called them “required options.” Same difference! 🙂
As I stated on another thread, Micro$lop is getting played like a drum by Apple. The cool and methodical tearing down of this long-entrenched yet fat and slobbish behemoth by Apple is one of the most fascinating stories of business history. The look on the faces of Ballhead and the rest at M$ said as much as what they said and didn’t say. They are so out of Apple’s league that it’s becoming almost embarrassing to watch.
Anyone who actually watched that presentation HAD to come away with the impression that the product was not fully developed, that the presenters KNEW this (especially Steven), and that they were scared. Rightly so with Steven who became totally flustered with his locked up demo unit. These guys severely overworked the engineering of the Surface, overstating banal features. MicroSoft’s idea of “liquid metal” is basic metal casting (“…we actually melt the magnesium and form it with our machines…injection molders…”, oh, how thoroughly exciting!). And, please, that engineer actually Loves the keyboard more than anything else on earth, next to his wife? Why not? It has SEVEN layers!! And the 22° bevel (or “chAIMfer or “chAMfer”, he used both pronunciations), you would think it is magical or mystical the way he went on about it. Imagine what kind of failure Surface would be had they gone with a 24° bevel! Lastly, Ballmer just doesn’t come across as a likable fellow. And talk about revisionist history: to believe Microsoft, they had to invent the mouse to run the GUI OS they invented. What a gasbag.
in a word, vaporware.
some things never change.
but i gotta be rooting for them. they lost me years ago, but i gotta respect that they came up with something original and not derivative in Metro. pushed hard enough, long enough, they actually came thru with something not a 2nd rate, buggy, derivative copy 5 years late from what AAPL did (that trick no longer works, apparently).
gotta hand it to them…
Maybe it’ll die before it even hits distribution. Would have saved them a lot of embarrassment and bad press if they’d killed the Zune before it was released. I never even saw one of those in the wild, other than in a glass case in a store at a Mall.
What Steve Jobs did was manipulate Steve Ballmer? As a result, it “forced” Microsoft into wasting time, effort, and resources. Any company without the Windows/Office cash cow be bankrupt by now. Here’s the manipulation timeline, as I see it…
Microsoft was working on an ambitious project, code-named “Longhorn,” which is far behind schedule. Apple annoyed Microsoft SO much with their Get a Mac ads comparing Mac OS X to Windows XP, that Microsoft abandoned Longhorn after years of effort, and started over to do a “rush job” on Windows Vista. This causes Microsoft to more or less ignore their relatively strong position in smartphones with Windows Mobile, as well as their long-term work on mobile/tablet computing.
Just as Windows Vista was released, Apple stole the tech show for the rest of 2007 by announcing the first iPhone. After first going into “denial mode” and getting Windows 7 out the door FAST to address the Vista disaster, Microsoft panicked and put all attention into Windows Phone 7, all but abandoning the existing Windows Mobile platform.
After two years of intense effort on Windows Phone 7, Apple again stole the show with iPad in 2010. Microsoft had been working on tablets since the late 90’s, but Apple made everything that came before iPad obsolete. And no one cared about Windows Phone 7, because tablet computing became the “next big thing.” After some more denial, Microsoft panicked again and announced the tablet-centric plans for Windows 8.
Now, in 2012, as Microsoft is just about ready to go with Windows 8 (and “Surface”), you have to wonder what Apple has in store during the rest of 2012 to make people “not care” about what Microsoft is doing, yet again. They already have the Retina Display iPad, and the Retina Display MacBook, and upcoming “iPhone 5.” But those are evolutions of existing products. I’m expecting something totally new… Maybe it’s the “iTV” this time.
Microsoft (Steve Ballmer) was easily manipulated by Apple (Steve Jobs). Microsoft seems to intensely focus on one thing at a time, with no long-term strategy except copying Apple as quickly as possible, after it is too late. If Apple controls what that “one thing” is, Apple control Microsoft.
The effect you describe may be correct, but the cause is not Apple/Steve setting out to manipulate MS/Ballmer. That misses the essence that is the marvel known as Apple since Steve returned. Microsoft may be out to copy/surpass Apple, but Apple is out to solve problems consumers face. See the difference? Any company that tries to catch Apple is bound to fail. Steve turned Apple into a machine focused on one thing:creating a better experience for consumers. No quarter is giving to catching/surpassing competitors. That’s the losing game of losing companies. Apple didn’t release an OS to piss off Microsoft. Apple released an OS because it was A) ready and B) solved real needs of consumers. The fact that Apple is able to do this now annually is a testament to the beauty of Darwin and the adherence to their standards of software design. Microsoft and Google need to turn their attention away from Apple and back towards consumers and figure out industries that have horrible experiences that they can address. But for those two companies in particular, the buying public has never really been their customer so they are on unfamiliar ground. Microsoft’s performance before the press was evidence of this required shift: For decades Microsoft didn’t have to win the approval of the press because whatever Microsoft said or did carried the day. They are wholly unfamiliar with how to win the press over. And their demos were a step removed from real product because that’s the business they were in: providing enabling technology to hardware vendors.
I think you are wrong. Ten years ago, Microsoft was a “superpower” in tech. Even Apple asked Microsoft for help and recognition, when Steve Jobs came back. For those first few years, Apple was very “nice” and respectful to Microsoft.
Once Apple was back on solid financial footing, Apple started the manipulations. Apple repeatedly made Microsoft take its eyes off Apple’s future (secret) target.
So, while Microsoft was too busy working on Windows Vista to care about Windows Mobile (which had a leadership position in smartphones), Apple secretly worked on iPhone. While Microsoft was pre-occupied with Windows Phone 7, Apple secretly worked on iPad. Again, Microsoft had been working on mobile/tablet computing for more than a decade, but that effort was largely ignored due to Windows Phone 7. When iPad was released, Microsoft had NOTHING for tablets. Windows 7 was too bloated (and not for ARM) and Windows Phone 7 was a PDA-class OS. Now, Microsoft has been mostly focused on an OS for tablets, for the last two years. What’s Apple’s “next big thing” this time…?
Obviously, Apple’s true purpose for creating great products is to create great products, not to manipulate Microsoft. However, the timing of each Apple major product launch, to coincide with something major from Microsoft is no coincidence. Microsoft is still relevant and a threat to Apple; five more years of Apple manipulation, and they will be mostly irrelevant.
Good points. MS has to sell a whole lot more software now as it’s forced to lower its prices. On a related note, it sure would be nice to pay a whole lot less for Adobe products (if we need them) and for us truck-driving musicians, a much less inexpensive ProTools, etc..
JeD
Thanks! I had forgotten that add!