At the same time, we also know that technology will change dramatically. Who could have predicted even 10 years ago that the CIO would have to deal with complications such as cloud security and virtualization? To find out how the role will change in eight years, we tapped industry leaders, analysts, and CIOs themselves to discover what the challenges of 2020 for the CIO will be like. Here's what we found out.
1. Microsoft's reign may end.
Perhaps one of the most dramatic changes in 2020 could be a lesser role for Microsoft. Todd McKinnon, CEO of Okta, an identity access management company, says the rise of iOS and Android have put a dent in Microsoft's dominance, but many companies have stuck with Windows Server for better or worse. However, mobile will likely end a Microsoft hegemony.
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"In 2020, employees, customers and partners will demandand expectaccess to apps from more than one heterogeneous device," he says. "If the CIO has not built an infrastructure to support this, we're going to see a lot more, and likely very serious, security breaches by 2020."
2. The IT department won't be physical.
There's a dramatic shift to the cloud, but most of us can still tell you who works in IT, where the department is located and who is in charge. By 2020, there will be a shift from an IT department for end users to a "follow me" IT service provider mentality. In other words, IT itself will move to the cloud. The concept will shift from a department that manages cloud services to a cloud service itself.
Bob Janssen, CTO of RES Software, a company that makes Windows desktop management software, says the end-users of today are the last generation of corporate workers who can tell how and where IT is operating. The next generation won't even know. Those workers will have ties with about 150 other workers (on average); they grew up analog and learned digital.
3. Hyperkinetic business collaboration will occur in the cloud.
High-definition videoconferencing has certainly made progress, but most meetings still take place in person. By 2020, McKinnon says, collaboration in the cloud will replace collaboration behind a firewall. This means the CIO will have to address how employees use cloud services. "As a result, the position of the CIO will evolve into one that emphasizes strategic business leadership -- looking at where and how to best collaborate with business partners," he says. "This also means that the CIO will have had to address head-on the issue of moving information from behind the firewall in terms of security."
4. CIOs will manage fewer humans, especially for security.
By 2020, the role of CIO will shift away from one that is mostly about managing humans in a large workforce. While that may seem too far-future for some, the reality is that computing is becoming much more autonomous, requiring less dependence on human intervention for systems to run correctly. Darnell Washington, CEO of SecureExperts, says building security, identity management, and even emergency response will be controlled by computer artificial intelligence (AI). "First response and collection of situational awareness will be initially obtained by unmanned systems, robots, surveillance drones, and other unmanned aerial vehicle systems that contain audio and video capabilities," he says.
5. End-users will not be in departmental groups.
Janssen also says end-users will no longer work in groups. That shift will be one of the most critical changes for CIOs, who often meet with teams to collaborate and strategize. Instead, IT will become a service provider to individuals, making sure their gadgets, software, and systems work. He says "native" digital users might have as many as 15,000 important business relationships (many of them not in person) that can serve as technical resources. A gap will develop by 2020 where the hyperconnected social platforms mean workers are much more acquainted with friends than co-workers. So the CIO of 2020 will be required to compete with the Facebook of tomorrow. "Facebook-like enterprise networks will serve as a far more effective means of collaborating among teams," he says.