After smartphone vendors Research In Motion and Palm went cold, is it Apple's turn to fall out of... [+]
Apple is poised to take smartphone market share away from Google's Android smartphone software in developed markets, BernsteinResearch found after surveying 1,500 consumers in Europe and North America.
Based on its survey of consumer intent, Bernstein Research expects Apple's share of the smartphone market to move into the 'high thirties," surpassing that held by the army of devices running Google's Android software, which will head to the "lower thirties."
"We note strong continued attraction dynamics for Apple that will most likely result in market share gains on Android, and especially if the Cupertino firm expands aggressively into lower price points, we see Android players losing ground to Apple in the near future," the analysts wrote.
BernsteinResearch has 'out perform' ratings on Apple, Samsung, and HTC; a 'market perform' rating on BlackBerry maker Research In Motion, and an 'under perform' rating on Nokia.
Apple now represents 29% of smartphone users and Android represents 40% of smartphone users, according to BernsteinResearch. Apple's iOS software, however, is stickier than Android: 95% of iOS users plan to stick to with Apple. By contrast, 75% of Android users plan to stick with Google's software. Most of these potential Android defectors plan to switch to iOS.
Devices running Apple's iOS and Google's Android software, however, command too much 'stickiness" for a third ecosystem to make much progress, BernsteinResearch's analysts argied in their note to investors Monday. "Windows isn't a credible play yet, Blackberry is in freefall and Nokia has become a negligible force in Smartphones," they wrote.
Over the long term, the firm sees Apple commanding 35% of the smartphone market, Samsung grabbing 20%, and HTC grabbing 10%.
