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Is Steve 'Woz' Wozniak, cofounder of Apple, sending a sell signal on the stock?
In a heavily promoted interview with CNBC, Woz unabashedly said that Apple stock can go to $1,000. He started out by assigning the integrated nature of Apple products as the impetus behind his call. In plain English, "integrated nature" in context of Apple simply means that Apple products work well together.
As the interview proceeded, Woz seemed to shift to Apple TV as the main reason for the call to $1,000. CNBC called the interview exclusive but Woz lately seems to be all over the media with the same pronouncement.
"It's not like a side project 'we're going to start a TV company.' No, we're going to start TV within the whole Apple world. Assuming that we are going to, I don't know," said Woz.
Woz is clearly a very accomplished person. He has not been at Apple for a long time. Apple is known to be very secretive and known for not sharing sensitive information with ex-employees. Maybe it is my ignorance coming into play that I found the use of the word ‘we’ three times in the foregoing statement, starting with an unambiguous claim and ending with ‘I don’t know,’ to be rather confusing.
Pinning hopes for a double on Apple TV, a product that has not yet been introduced is at best highly speculative. Apple has experienced a string of hits, but it does not mean that there is 100% certainty that future products will be even bigger hits.
It does not appear that Woz was making rounds of media like he is doing now with a $1,000 stock proclamation when Apple stock was at $100, $200, $300 or $400.
There does not seem to be much record of Woz having experience with making successful stock market calls. Woz admits that he does not follow the stock market. These days, Woz is the chief scientist at Fusio-io (FIO).
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Woz exemplifies the extreme bullish sentiment surrounding Apple. History has shown again and again that extreme bullishness is a contrary indicator.
No bell is rung at the top, but bullish pronouncements from people who are usually not making stock predictions often comes close to a bell-ringing. Joseph P. Kennedy, Sr., father of President Kennedy, famously said that he knew it was time to get out of the stock market before the 1929 crash when he was getting stock tips from the shoeshine boy.
Is Woz sending a sell signal? Apple fan boys will counter, ‘This time it's different.’
About Me: I am an engineer and nuclear physicist by background. I have founded two Inc. 500 companies, and have been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. I am the Chief Investment Officer at The Arora Report, which publishes four newsletters to help investors profit from change. Please feel free to write me at Nigam@TheAroraReport.com.You can follow me here and get email notification when I publish a new article.
Full disclosure: I, my hedge fund, and Arora Report subscribers are long Apple.
