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iSuppli: Windows Phone to Leapfrog iPhone by 2015

The 1-2 punch of Microsoft and Nokia will propel Windows Phone to the No. 2 spot in the smartphone OS market behind Google's Android, the research firm predicts.

February 7, 2012

Microsoft's Windows Phone will overtake Apple's iOS in terms of smartphone operating system market share by 2015, IHS iSuppli forecasted Tuesday. The industry research firm believes the partnership between Microsoft and Nokia will help propel Windows Phone from just a 1.9 percent share of the smartphone market last year to the No. 2 spot behind Google's Android in just a few short years.

"With the introduction of its critically acclaimed Lumia 900, Nokia has set the stage to regain some of its lost smartphone market share—and to re-establish Microsoft Windows Phone as a leading contender in the cellphone operating system (OS) business," IHS analyst Wayne Lam wrote in a January research note that's making the rounds this week.

Lam predicts that Android will continue to steadily gain smartphone OS market share in the coming years, growing from 47.4 percent of the market in 2011 to 58.1 percent by 2015 (see chart below). He forecast Windows Phone's share vaulting from just a sliver of the market last year to 9.0 percent in 2012, 15.3 percent in 2013, 16.1 percent in 2014, and 16.7 percent in 2015.

That's the year that Microsoft would theoretically surpass Apple. The iPhone maker had 18.0 percent of the smartphone OS market and the No. 2 spot behind Google in 2011, according to IHS iSuppli. Apple's iOS will retain that share and position in 2012, but will see its percentage of the market decline to 17.3 percent in 2013, to 16.8 percent in 2014, and finally to 16.6 percent in 2015—just a tick behind Windows Phone, if Lam's forecast plays out.

Meanwhile, Nokia "stands to stem its plunge in smartphone market share" and pick up some ground lost to Apple and Samsung in recent quarters, Lam wrote.

"One of the hottest new products unveiled at the Consumer Electronics Show was the Lumia 900, a Windows Phone-based smartphone sporting a flashy set of features that makes it competitive with the best alternatives offered by the Android camp," Lam said.

"This hot product represents Nokia's first step to reclaim its market share. Combined with Nokia's efforts to drive the development of the Windows Phone ecosystem, the Lumia 900 and its successors will help Microsoft to reclaim its No. 2 ranking in smartphone operating system market share in 2015."

For more, see PCMag's and the accompanying slide show below.