Why Tablets Are So Important

In 1992, I was asked to work on a project for Microsoft that focused on pen computing. Unless you are in the industry, you have probably never even heard of this project, but the idea was to create a tablet-like device that used a stylus for navigation and input.

At the time, pen computing was considered the next big thing in tech and some people were hailing it the future of PCs. For a lot of reasons, especially the poor handwriting technology available at the time, it was a commercial flop. On the bright side, while working on the project, I got to spend some time with Bill Gates and ask him about his thoughts on the future of personal computing.

At one private lunch meeting, he told me and two others at the table that he saw the tablet as the personal computing form factor of the future. He was not deterred by the failure of this early attempt at pen-computing tablets. Rather, he saw it as a stepping stone that moved research in the right direction.

About 10 years later, Gates took the stage at CES and updated his tablet vision with what he called his "tablet initiative." He now felt that the technology had advanced enough to finally bring to market a new version of his first tablet—one that would rely less on handwriting recognition and instead use the pen mainly for navigation. He pushed the idea of a laptop with a screen that could be folded down over the keyboard to become a tablet.

However, this tablet did not take off either, except for use in vertical markets. Even though they have been on the market for about eight years, less than one million are sold annually worldwide. Still, I have heard from many who talk to Gates that he has never wavered on his vision that a tablet will be the PC of the future.

Of course, he hoped that Microsoft would be the first to deliver the software for this device. He probably never dreamed that Apple would replicate his vision and embellish it. In fact, the is starting to look like the "" that defines the PCs of the future. Yes, I know should be in this mix as well, but at the moment, most Android tablets are better used as media devices than as crossovers that span productivity and entertainment as Gates had envisioned. The more I use various tablets, especially the iPad, the more I believe that Gates' concept of the tablet as the best form factor for true personal computing is spot on.

Although a tablet by itself is optimized for content consumption, the simple addition of a wireless keyboard makes it a serious productivity tool, as well. I have been using a particularly interesting tablet case that has helped me see this vision of future computing more clearly. Just before CES, I bought the Zagg Folio case, a hard shell case fitted to the iPad 2 that has an excellent keyboard on the bottom half. The keyboard looks identical to the keyboards on some of my 11-inch laptops and it works perfectly for any touch typist without compromises. Consequently, I am able to produce documents and use it for serious note taking. I use many of its other productivity apps, also.

It is this productivity focus that is a key issue if tablets are to become the computing form factor of the future. While many tablets can mainly be used for entertainment, especially the 7-inch models, the larger screen versions will need to handle entertainment and productivity effectively and efficiently.

Though I don't see traditional laptops going away, tablets will put a lot of pressure on laptop makers to offer serious tablets and/or in their mix if they hope to maintain their market positions. may fill a gap when it comes to providing smaller and lighter laptops in the short term, but I am starting to think now that the entire portable computing market may shift to hybrids over the next three to five years.

In our research, we continue to hear from users, especially business users who have both a tablet and a laptop, that they prefer to carry only one device. This melding of a laptop and tablet into a single device is of great interest to these types of users and, I suspect, to many consumers, as well.

In the short term, I expect these tablet case/keyboard combos to become especially popular with those who want to use their current tablets for productivity. Using the Zagg Folio has really made my iPad a more versatile machine, but at the same time, I would really like to have the full power Mac OS X at my disposal. Some vendors think Apple has a hybrid in the works but they expect it to run iOS on the tablet and OS X in laptop mode. Ultimately, it would be better if it had a single OS and UI on both systems.

That is why there is real curiosity around what Microsoft and its partners will do with Windows 8. At least on the surface, it seems that they could deliver a solid and laptop hybrid with a single OS, UI, and apps base that would unify the laptop and tablet experience. In fact, Microsoft could emerge as the big winner here.

While the iPad and tablets of today pretty much operate as standalone devices—and some will continue to do so—I am starting to think now that they will actually be the detachable screens on most laptops of tomorrow. After using the iPad with the Zagg Folio, I can actually see this concept being flushed out and eventually representing the form factor for a large user audience someday. That's why the tablet is so important.

When Apple introduced the iPad, most of us just thought of it as a cool product, but one that stood on its own. In fact, it seems to me that it is actually a key part of the form factor of future mobile devices and in many ways, the fulfillment of Bill Gates' vision from 20 years ago.