For months, I believed that Apple’s next iPhone was going to be a 3GS-type update. That is, an update to the internals of the phone, but with the same external case.
This sort of update just made sense to me for a long time. The iPhone 4 was a huge step forward from the previous models, and I couldn’t see Apple moving away from it after a single generation. The iPhone 4 is simply beautiful.
But the iPhone 4 is aging. By the rumored September update, it will be 15 months old. In the mobile industry, that’s a lifetime.
If Apple releases a 3GS-type update, I think many consumers will look at it and wonder why they should update to something that looks like the phone they already have.
I think this wasn’t as big of an issue with the iPhone 3GS as it could be with a new iPhone this year. For one, the 3GS packed not only better speed, but a much better camera that included tap-to-focus and video recording capabilities. There’s not much that I can imagine Apple could stuff into the next iPhone that would get people super excited without changing the exterior.
Then, of course, there’s the Antennagate thing. While the iPhone 4’s issues seem to have been mostly forgotten (or overblown to start with), shipping another phone with the same external antenna could bring all of that bad press back into the light. Which is something Apple more than likely wants to avoid.
Even if Apple doesn’t redesign the next iPhone, it will still sell like hotcakes. But I think the market is ready for some shiny new hardware from Apple.