Jabil Earnings: Attached to Apple iPhone Demand

Jabil Inc. (JBL) is an EMS (electronics manufacturing services) company that provides integrated circuits for brand-name products made around the world. This includes making components for Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) iPhones.

Jabil stock closed Wednesday at $28.53, up 20.5% year to date and in bull market territory at 25.2% above its 52-week low of $22.78 set on Jan. 12. Jabil is also in correction territory at 10% below its 2017 high of $31.70 set on June 9. Meanwhile, Apple shares closed Wednesday at $172.27, up 48.7% year to date and in bull market territory at 50.1% above its 52-week low of $114.76 set on Jan. 3. Apple set its all-time intraday high of $176.24 on Nov. 8.

Analysts expect Jabil to post earnings per share of 79 to 81 cents when it reports results after the closing bell on Dec. 14. The stock is not cheap, as its P/E ratio is 41.19 and its dividend yield is just 1.15%. Earnings and revenue are expected to show year-over-year gains, as guidance on components made for the iPhone X will key the post-earnings reaction. The volatility for Jabil could be felt by shares of Apple, as 24% of Jabil's revenue is tied to Apple's iPhone.

The weekly chart for Jabil

Weekly technical chart showing the performance of Jabil Inc. (JBL) stock

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart for Jabil will remain negative unless the stock ends the week above its five-week modified moving average of $28.71. The stock is well above its 200-week simple moving average at $22.71 and has been above this "reversion to the mean" since the week of Dec. 9, 2016, when the average was $20.56. The 12 x 3 x 3 weekly slow stochastic reading is projected to end this week at 32.91, slipping from 34.98 on Dec. 8. 

Given this chart and analysis, my trading strategy is to buy weakness to my quarterly and semiannual value levels of $26.90 and $25.22, respectively, and to reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and annual risky levels of $29.86 and $34.65, respectively.    

The weekly chart for Apple

Weekly technical chart showing the performance of Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The weekly chart for Apple is positive but overbought, with the stock above its five-week modified moving average of $168.80. The stock is well above its 200-week simple moving average at $117.60 and has been above its "reversion to the mean" since the week of July 1, 2016, when the average was $93.31. The 12 x 3 x 3 weekly slow stochastic reading is projected to end this week at 82.10, slipping from 83.02 on Dec. 8 but still above the overbought threshold of 80.00.  

Given this chart and analysis, my trading strategy is to buy weakness to my annual and quarterly value levels of $151.69 and $141.84, respectively, and to reduce holdings on strength to my weekly risky level of $181.09. My monthly and semiannual pivots (or magnets) are $171.90 and $173.25, respectively. (For more, see: Apple's iPhone Delivers the Goods in Q4, Others On Fire.)

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